Saturday, April 23, 2011

Everonn- NSDC Deal Analysis

Everonn recently announced a deal with NSDC to train 15 million people over the next 10 years. While one must congratulate them for being ambitious, there are a few things that we note

1. Reading most media reports leaves you thinking that NSDC will pay for the training. Incorrect! NSDC is not going to pay for the training; it is only providing low cost funding, as soft loans (and equity) to create capacity. The 15 million number is based on a 10 year business plan, which is largely an excel exercise at this stage. This is not a 15,000 cr contract with NSDC as reported in the media.

What must be noted that Everonn trained about 2000 people on vocational skills last year and aims to scale this up to 2.5 lacs in FY12 itself. Pretty steep climb in my view. Especially given that not too many people have been able to scale up vocational training, NIIT and Aptech being exceptions. And NIIT, over 30 years has only scaled up to training 5 lac/year.

2. Everonn is targeting an average fee of Rs 9000 per student. Though it sounds low, the propensity to pay (even this low amount) for training in the target population is likely to be a major challenge

3. 15 million means over 10 years implies that in the 10th year, they would be training at least 2-3 million. Given that India makes 30 million babies a year, this is 7-10% of the annual incremental population, implying 10% of population being trained by one company. Given that they are targeting service sector skills only, the implied share of target segment is huge

4. They hope to make profits in the first year despite a steep ramp up. Unlikely, given that initially the sales and marketing costs are going to be very high

That said, the fact that they can call themselves a government (or at least a semi government) organization is a huge positive and would give them credibility in the market. What remains to be seen is whether this advantage, comes with any baggage as well.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

nice post. thanks.

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