Monday, June 30, 2008

Technical Analysis

Was reading Graham's "The Intellingent Investor". According to him, its is difficult to benefit from trend following. A number of people I know, deride technical analysis. However, I believe that patterns should be looked at in a way you would look at statistical models.

And therefore like these models, technical pattens represent statistical realities and like all statistical models, would give you predict correctly only a certain percentage of times. As long as this is above 50 percent it has some value. Need is to be persistent with your apporach and to select patterns where predictive success percentage is substantially greater than 50 percent.

Anyways, market held above the 4015 support today. Fundamentally the markets look prime for entry. However, the momentum may take the market down further in the near term.

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