Why Congress may spring a few surprises in the current polls

I am no psephology expert, and these are just my thoughts.

Lets agree that, BJP is outspending Congress by a huge margin and their media managers have made very effective use of this spending power. With that as a background, here are a few thoughts for you to consider

Gujarat has certainly grown fast over the last 10 years (next only to Uttrakhand). However 10 other states have outpaced it in growth over the last 5 years (period for which data is available). So while there is much to like about what is called the Gujarat model (frankly, other than a few anecdotes, I know nothing about this famed model), it is certainly not the only 'model'. Gujarat still has prohibition(although per reports there is a 30K crore grey market). Therefore its tough for me to reconcile with the Gujarat model, if I have to buy my weekly fix through the grey market, although my spouse would be happy if it implemented nationwide.

Lets also agree that in cities (certainly the metro cities in North and West India) there is certainly a Modi 'wave'. But it may be imprudent to completely write off Congress for a couple of reasons

1. Anti incumbency vote may get divided between Modi and AAP
2. Congress Government has done tremendous work outside of the main cities in the areas of Education and Healthcare over the last 10 years. Initiatives like NREGA, despite many chinks in execution, are providing livelihood to many and part of the enormous work done on 'Inclusion'. While Congress has failed to highlight this in the media, there is bound to be some goodwill from these initiatives amongst people that have benefited from it.

In any case, if Modi does win, his party may not be the one celebrating over the next 5 years, because it may turn out that the incumbent government is not really more corrupt that the previous government by his party, as is the popular perception. But that this, popular perception, is a result of the tremendous increase in media spotlight/CAG activism over the last few years, This is likely to get amplified even more in the coming 5 years because of the huge expectations being built around him.







 

Elections 2014: Media inquisitions and Ullu Banaoing

Its elections time once again and a rather elongated period. Our politicians are now facing increasing scrutiny from media and the common man. Journalists are not afraid to ask the rough questions or relay popular resentment in interviews with new or powerful seasoned politicians (except Modi, Sonia and Rahul - which is not unexpected - even Arnab Goswami's interview of RG was rather tame, compared to his usual inquisitions).  Remember they still face accusations about choosing sides, biased opinions and paid news. But have our journalists come of age.

Despite the above accusations, I believe that the biggest failings is their ability to questions the replies they get, to get past rhetoric and not allowing these politicians to escape with jingoism and get real answers. Eg  Q. Why haven't you apologised for the riots that happened in the year AAAA?  Answer: Why does our oppositions not answer for XXX, YYY and ZZZ.  More people died in the these three. They were in power at the centre at all these times including in AAAA.

The journalists are happy at this point. Content that they have got the answer to the questions that were handed to them by their editor. They tick off this question and move to the next one. Politicians have realized that that they can side step difficult questions quite easily. Notice the reply, does not even attempt to the question asked and easily sidesteps it. The interviewer mentally ticks off a box in his list of questions and moves on to the next one. Headlines next days would say MMMM asks opposition party to atone for their sins.

This gets repeated for issue after issue. This "Ullu banaoing" continues. Everybody is happy.