NSE NIFTY Technical Analysis

NSE has moved towards its target of 4650 levels. However it traced back from the resistance level. It has to close above 4670 to make any decisive move. I expect the sensex to move sideways for a few more days. Further reduction in crude price could be one trigger. Growth has already slowed down, however this may have already been factored into the price. June IIP growth nos showed a Q0Q increase and should be higher July onwards due to base effects.

The question is, Has the drop in growth has bottomed out?'.

Options Trading Strategy: Write 'On the Money' calls cover above 4650-4670. Buy Put options (out of money)

August 13, 2008

NSE NIFTY - Resistance Levels

It would take some real triggers for NSE NIFTY to break through. It has strong resistance at 4450 level. Post that it would encounter resistance at around the 4525 to 4540 levels and the second at 4650 levels. If it breaks above these levels, nifty could see a huge upward swing. But to close above that would require huge positive fundamental triggers.

Options Strategy: Buy Put options, Write Call Options at 4450

August 4, 2008

Falling Service Levels of Private Companies (Telcos, Banks, Discoms etc)

We, in India have always wondered if we would ever get respite from the poor service levels that public sector enterprises have been dishing out to us in the past. There was hope that things will change when private sector takes over. For a brief time this was even true and we though the days of poor service were over.

However it is now time to face reality. You just have to look at the large private sector players today to realize that the dream has gone sour especially in this department. Far from being customer friendly the large telcos, banks, and power discoms behavior rivals the worst departments in the public sector and in many cases service levels and regard for customer is even lower. This is true especially of the top players in each category.

Bottom line is that these private companies care only about their profits. The decision for them is simple and depend on the answer to this question, 'Is investing in customer service for you NPV (Net Present Value) positive or negative?'. God help you if the answer is negative. Large private companies are more like monopolies in their respective field. Take telcos for eg even though there are a number of companies now, with no number portability you are locked into telco and therefore there is no reason for them to improve their service as long as there is no mass exodus.

So what can you do as a consumer. Make it expensive for them to deny you good service. Switch, Complain, Sue. Be aware of your rights. Abuse back, blog about that poor experience that you have had. Cause a mass exodus of customers. Cause a run on the bank. Make theme pay. Make them realize customer is king. Other wise only competition can be your savior.